Comments on: The Thing That Wouldn’t Leave

By: mike

mike — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 08:43:35 +0000

Have you looked at what the totals would be if the Democrats had winner-take-all primaries like the Republicans or the general election? Hillary would hold a significant lead in the delegate count. The fact that she wins in big states and swing states is why the Dems need her on the ticket.

Here’s the totals:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_wesley_little/what_if_democrats_used_winner_take_all

That may not be how the Dems vote in the primaries but, it’s how the country votes in the general election.

Clinton/Obama 08

By: Mark

Mark — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 11:59:40 +0000

Okay, but that is highly hypothetical. If the Democratic primaries were all winner-take-all, I assume BHO would have run a different style of campaign. Instead, they have optimized their strategy to learn caucus rules where caucuses matter, and do standard media saturation, etc. in proportional or winner-take-all scenarios. The game is to win it so you can participate in the general, and to date BHO has demonstrated a more optimal approach.

And I think that most of the big states that HRC is winning, most Democratic candidates would likely win in the general. Obama looks stronger in the western states where HRC loses a McCain match-up. Bush is staggeringly unpopular and McCain doesn’t seem to be offering much more than his own blinking befuddlement.

Obama/Mike 08

By: mike

mike — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 16:30:18 +0000

I sure don’t want McCain but there is a lot of dislike for Obama and Clinton as well inside there own party. I hope they will get the big blue and swing states anyway. I am not sure how the losers of the Dem race will react. I think there will be a significant defection to McCain in Ohio and Pennsylvania and Florida for example if Obama is nominated.

There is a real question here about who is more likely to win in November against McCain.

I don’t think the Dems’ “super-delegates” are capable of picking Hillary even if she wins the popular vote- they will greatly fear being defined as racists at that point - which doesn’t make them very super in my opinion.

Clinton/Obama people!

We the party of Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry and Gore will prevail!

By: Mark

Mark — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 16:55:25 +0000

Yeah, I mostly worry that a continued Democratic fight only helps McCain, and I can’t understand why you’d give an edge to a weak candidate like that. There is only one remaining scenario that give HRC a popular vote edge (with FL/MI) and even that is small. Obama leads all other summaries, and there just aren’t any blowout opportunities on the calendar. I agree with you that the superdelegates will have to follow the popular vote.

But I don’t get a ticket with both (and I really don’t get why it is always suggested with HRC at the top … she’s losing against any metric that counts!).

And jeez …. Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry and Gore … what a lineup. Hasn’t been anything like it since the ‘62 Mets.

By: mike

mike — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 17:37:17 +0000

Clinton on top of the ticket only because she can bowl her age.
I do think if Obama proposed it, he would get instant legendary “Great Uniter” status which gives you extra leg-room on long flights.

Rahm Emanuel said on C Rose that everything hangs on how the losing Dem loses.