The Thing That Wouldn’t Leave
Anyone with some high school math realizes that the race for the Democratic nomination has been over for about six weeks at this point. Obama continues to run a fairly classy, non-negative campaign largely because he has the luxury to do so. The Sound and Fury from the Clinton camp over the last two weeks is apparently important in the weird science of Television Entertainment (although on any other reality show I can think of she’d have been voted off by now … except maybe a special edition of ‘Biggest Loser’). It’s enough to inspire some wailing and keening and gnashing of teeth on sites like TPM Cafe, but even there it is done so in half-hearted angst. The season is over. Time to rest up and get ready for the playoffs.
Updating the chart of the vanishing superdelegate gap though Saturday (from the data in Politico’s logbook) the trend continues to illustrate this reality. Reconstructing the data day by day since Feb. 25th, I come up with a gap today of 24 delegates. Politico has it at 19 on another summary page, so things are close to an end from my data, but possibly closer in reality.
Although the polynomial trend (projecting when the gap vanishes) is still more satisfying, it is now coming in only a week earlier than the straight line forecast, and both before the end of May. (The exponential trend provides HRC with a margin +10 into June).
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Have you looked at what the totals would be if the Democrats had winner-take-all primaries like the Republicans or the general election? Hillary would hold a significant lead in the delegate count. The fact that she wins in big states and swing states is why the Dems need her on the ticket.
Here’s the totals:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_wesley_little/what_if_democrats_used_winner_take_all
That may not be how the Dems vote in the primaries but, it’s how the country votes in the general election.
Clinton/Obama 08
Comment by mike — April 28, 2008 @ 3:43 am
Okay, but that is highly hypothetical. If the Democratic primaries were all winner-take-all, I assume BHO would have run a different style of campaign. Instead, they have optimized their strategy to learn caucus rules where caucuses matter, and do standard media saturation, etc. in proportional or winner-take-all scenarios. The game is to win it so you can participate in the general, and to date BHO has demonstrated a more optimal approach.
And I think that most of the big states that HRC is winning, most Democratic candidates would likely win in the general. Obama looks stronger in the western states where HRC loses a McCain match-up. Bush is staggeringly unpopular and McCain doesn’t seem to be offering much more than his own blinking befuddlement.
Obama/Mike 08
Comment by Mark — April 28, 2008 @ 6:59 am
I sure don’t want McCain but there is a lot of dislike for Obama and Clinton as well inside there own party. I hope they will get the big blue and swing states anyway. I am not sure how the losers of the Dem race will react. I think there will be a significant defection to McCain in Ohio and Pennsylvania and Florida for example if Obama is nominated.
There is a real question here about who is more likely to win in November against McCain.
I don’t think the Dems’ “super-delegates” are capable of picking Hillary even if she wins the popular vote- they will greatly fear being defined as racists at that point - which doesn’t make them very super in my opinion.
Clinton/Obama people!
We the party of Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry and Gore will prevail!
Comment by mike — April 28, 2008 @ 11:30 am
Yeah, I mostly worry that a continued Democratic fight only helps McCain, and I can’t understand why you’d give an edge to a weak candidate like that. There is only one remaining scenario that give HRC a popular vote edge (with FL/MI) and even that is small. Obama leads all other summaries, and there just aren’t any blowout opportunities on the calendar. I agree with you that the superdelegates will have to follow the popular vote.
But I don’t get a ticket with both (and I really don’t get why it is always suggested with HRC at the top … she’s losing against any metric that counts!).
And jeez …. Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry and Gore … what a lineup. Hasn’t been anything like it since the ‘62 Mets.
Comment by Mark — April 28, 2008 @ 11:55 am
Clinton on top of the ticket only because she can bowl her age.
I do think if Obama proposed it, he would get instant legendary “Great Uniter” status which gives you extra leg-room on long flights.
Rahm Emanuel said on C Rose that everything hangs on how the losing Dem loses.
Comment by mike — April 28, 2008 @ 12:37 pm